Is March of the Machine Draft Booster Box Still Worth Cracking in 2026?
Short answer: Yes. March of the Machine Draft Booster Box has a 1.62x full EV ratio and 1.26x sellable EV ratio at a $156.50 market price. Three years after release, the math still favors cracking. This is the rare case of a set whose EV held up rather than decaying with age.
March of the Machine Draft Booster: The Numbers
Current data from SpellBook's EV Rankings:
- Market price: $156.50
- Total EV: $253.12
- Full EV ratio: 1.62x
- Sellable EV: $196.53
- Sellable EV ratio: 1.26x
- Packs per box: 36
A 1.26x sellable EV ratio is what you want to see before cracking. It means after stripping out cards too cheap to actually sell as singles, you're still expected to recover 26% more than the box price. Your downside is limited and your upside is real.
Why MoM Draft Booster Held Up
Most Magic sets see their EV decay over time. The pattern: the set releases, demand is high, supply is constrained, EV is positive. Then printing continues, packs flood the market, prices settle down, EV drops. By 12-18 months post-release, most sets are in negative-EV territory.
March of the Machine bucked this pattern. A few reasons:
- Wide multiverse appeal. MoM was a story-defining crossover set with characters from across Magic's history. Cards from this set have steady demand from Commander players collecting characters they care about, which keeps singles prices firm.
- Strong eternal format adoption. Several MoM cards found homes in Modern, Pioneer, and Legacy decks. That format demand puts a floor under the price of those cards, which props up the box EV.
- Limited Draft Booster reprints. Wizards has shifted focus to Play Boosters, meaning Draft Booster supply for older sets like MoM has stopped expanding. With fixed supply and steady demand, prices held.
For more on how box EV is computed, see How MTG Box EV Is Calculated.
How MoM Compares to Other Older Sets
Most sets from 2023 are now in negative-EV territory. Here's how MoM Draft Booster compares to other April 2023-era sealed products:
- March of the Machine Draft Booster: 1.62x ratio
- March of the Machine Set Booster Display: 1.40x ratio (still positive)
- March of the Machine Aftermath Epilogue Booster: 1.33x ratio
- Phyrexia All Will Be One Draft Booster (Feb 2023): Currently below 1.0x
The MoM family of products is unusually strong for sets of this age. The Draft Booster is the highest, but the Set Booster and Aftermath Epilogue Booster are also positive-EV cracks. This is rare for 3-year-old sets.
What About MoM Collector and Commander Decks?
The picture changes for non-Draft formats:
- March of the Machine Collector Booster Display: $581.62, 0.39x EV ratio. Skip this.
- MoM Aftermath Collector Booster: $186.08, 0.69x. Negative EV.
- MoM Commander Decks (individual): 0.09-0.30x ratios across the four decks. Skip.
The Collector Booster suffers from the same problem as most modern Collector products: premium pricing not matched by premium card value. The Commander decks are buying experience, not value.
Risk: Reprint Vulnerability
The biggest risk to MoM Draft Booster's EV is reprint exposure. Several of the cards driving the EV are reprintable in supplemental products (Commander sets, Universes Beyond crossovers, Special Editions). If Wizards drops a major reprint that hits 2-3 of MoM's chase cards, the EV ratio could drop fast.
That said, the broad value distribution in MoM provides some insulation. Unlike sets where EV is concentrated in 1-2 mythics, MoM spreads value across more cards, so a single reprint announcement is less catastrophic than for a top-heavy set.
Verdict: Crack March of the Machine Draft Booster Now
March of the Machine Draft Booster Box at $156.50 is one of the best older-set crack opportunities currently available. The 1.62x full EV and 1.26x sellable EV give you positive expected value with real margin for variance. Three years of post-release stability suggests the EV math is durable, not a temporary spike.
If you're choosing between cracking MoM Draft Booster and holding it sealed, the cracking math is currently better. Sealed MoM hasn't shown the strong appreciation that Modern Horizons-style sets see, partly because MoM cards aren't dominant in the eternal formats that drive sealed Modern Horizons demand.
To check live EV data for any sealed product, see EV Rankings. For pack-opening simulation, use the Box Simulator. For the methodology behind these calculations, see MTG EV Calculator.