MTG EV Calculator

The Most Comprehensive MTG Box EV Calculator

Track expected value across 1,434+ sealed products with daily-updated TCGPlayer market prices, probability-weighted pull rates from actual booster sheet data, and cross-vendor pricing from 17+ sources.

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EV Calculator Comparison

Feature-by-feature breakdown across the three most popular EV tools.

Data source

Dawnglare

TCGPlayer listing prices

The Expected Value

TCGPlayer prices

SpellBook

TCGPlayer market prices (completed sales)

Update frequency

Dawnglare

Manual/irregular updates

The Expected Value

Daily

SpellBook

Daily at 9 AM UTC, fully automated

Sets covered

Dawnglare

~50 recent sets

The Expected Value

~80 sets

SpellBook

500+ sets, all with pricing data

Pack-level EV

Dawnglare

No

The Expected Value

No

SpellBook

Yes, per-pack and per-box breakdowns

Historical EV tracking

Dawnglare

No

The Expected Value

Limited snapshots

SpellBook

Yes, 30-day sparklines and full EV history

Sellable EV (bulk pricing)

Dawnglare

No

The Expected Value

No

SpellBook

Yes, rarity-aware bulk rates applied automatically

Portfolio integration

Dawnglare

No

The Expected Value

No

SpellBook

Yes, import box openings directly into your portfolio

Monte Carlo simulation

Dawnglare

No

The Expected Value

No

SpellBook

Yes, thousands of simulated openings with probability distributions

Multi-vendor pricing

Dawnglare

No

The Expected Value

No

SpellBook

Yes, 17+ sources including eBay, Card Kingdom, and ManaPool

Sealed backtesting

Dawnglare

No

The Expected Value

No

SpellBook

Yes, compare sealed product returns vs S&P 500

Mobile support

Dawnglare

Poor, not mobile-optimized

The Expected Value

Good

SpellBook

Full responsive design on all devices

Price

Dawnglare

Free

The Expected Value

Free

SpellBook

Free

Learn more about our pricing methodology →

Methodology

How SpellBook Calculates Box EV

Most EV calculators use simple rarity averages: divide the number of mythics in a set by the number of mythic slots and multiply by price. That approach ignores how booster packs are actually constructed. SpellBook uses probability-weighted sheet data from MTGJSON, which models the exact booster configuration for each product type. Each card's pull rate reflects its actual frequency on the print sheet, not a simplified rarity bucket.

For pricing, SpellBook pulls TCGPlayer market prices, which are computed from completed sales rather than active listings. Listing-based averages get skewed by damaged copies, troll prices, and stale inventory that never sells. Market prices reflect what buyers are actually paying, giving you a grounded EV figure you can trust.

SpellBook also calculates Sellable EV alongside full theoretical EV. Cards priced under $1 rarely sell at face value on TCGPlayer after fees and shipping. Sellable EV applies rarity-aware bulk pricing tiers to low-value cards, so the number you see reflects what you could realistically recoup from an opening, not just what the cards are theoretically worth.

All of this runs daily across 500+ sets. Every morning at 9 AM UTC, SpellBook refreshes prices and recalculates EV for every tracked sealed product. You can view today's snapshot, compare it against last week, or browse the full EV history to spot trends over time.

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Why switch?

Built for serious EV analysis

Probability-Weighted Pull Rates

SpellBook models booster construction from actual MTGJSON sheet data instead of using simplified rarity averages. Each card's pull rate reflects its real frequency on the print sheet, giving you an EV calculation that matches how packs are actually built.

Sellable EV, Not Just Theoretical

A $0.25 rare does not sell for $0.25 after fees and shipping. SpellBook applies rarity-aware bulk pricing tiers to low-value cards, so Sellable EV shows what you could realistically recover from an opening rather than a number inflated by unsellable bulk.

Pack-by-Pack Variance Analysis

EV is an average, but openings are not. SpellBook's Monte Carlo simulator runs thousands of simulated pack openings to show you the full probability distribution. See how likely you are to break even, hit a big pull, or walk away disappointed before you buy.

Frequently asked questions

SpellBook Finance offers the most comprehensive MTG EV calculator available. It covers 500+ sets with daily-updated TCGPlayer market prices, probability-weighted pull rates from MTGJSON booster sheet data, and a Sellable EV metric that accounts for bulk pricing. You can view EV rankings, historical trends, and Monte Carlo simulations all in one place at spellbook-finance.com/boxes/ev-rankings.
Booster box EV is the sum of each card's market price multiplied by its probability of appearing in a pack, scaled to the number of packs per box. SpellBook uses MTGJSON booster sheet data for accurate pull rates and TCGPlayer market prices from completed sales. This gives a realistic expected value based on actual transaction data rather than inflated listing averages.
Dawnglare was a pioneer in MTG EV tracking, but it covers only about 50 recent sets and updates on an irregular schedule. It also uses TCGPlayer listing prices rather than completed-sale market prices, which can skew results. For broader coverage and daily-updated data, SpellBook Finance tracks 500+ sets with automated daily refreshes at 9 AM UTC.
EV ratio is the expected value of a box's contents divided by the box's retail price. A ratio above 1.0 means the average opening returns more value than the box costs. SpellBook displays EV ratio prominently in its rankings so you can quickly identify which products offer the best value. Check the current EV rankings at spellbook-finance.com/boxes/ev-rankings.
SpellBook covers 10x more sets (500+ vs ~50), updates daily instead of irregularly, and uses market prices from completed sales instead of listing averages. It also offers features Dawnglare never built: Sellable EV with bulk pricing tiers, Monte Carlo pack simulation, historical EV tracking with sparklines, and portfolio integration for tracking your actual box openings.
SpellBook's EV Rankings page shows every tracked sealed product sorted by EV ratio, updated daily. You can filter by product type (draft, set, collector, play) and sort by total EV, Sellable EV, or EV ratio. Visit spellbook-finance.com/boxes/ev-rankings to see today's top-performing products with full breakdowns.
Full EV sums every card at market price regardless of whether you could actually sell it. Sellable EV applies bulk pricing tiers to cards under $1, reflecting what buylist vendors and TCGPlayer sellers realistically receive for low-value pulls. The gap between the two numbers tells you how much of a box's theoretical value is locked in unsellable bulk.
Yes. SpellBook's Monte Carlo Pack Simulator runs thousands of simulated openings using real booster sheet probabilities and current market prices. It shows you the full distribution of outcomes, including your odds of breaking even, your median expected return, and the probability of hitting a high-value pull. Try it at spellbook-finance.com/boxes/simulator.
Yes. Every box page includes 30-day EV sparklines, and you can view the full EV history for any sealed product. This lets you spot trends, see how a set's value changes after rotation or reprints, and decide whether to buy now or wait. Historical data is available for every tracked product across all 500+ sets.
Yes, SpellBook's EV calculator is completely free. EV rankings, individual box breakdowns, historical EV data, and cross-vendor pricing are all available without an account. The Pack Simulator and portfolio tracking features are also free to use. Premium features like AI-powered market analysis and arbitrage tools are available for subscribers.

Stop guessing. Start calculating.

Every sealed product decision should be backed by data. SpellBook gives you probability-weighted EV, sellable value estimates, and historical trends for 500+ sets, updated daily.

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