Boxes vs the S&P 500

1-year sealed product performance compared to the stock market. Which boxes are better investments than an index fund? Explore the full backtest tool for custom date ranges, or check EV rankings to see which boxes are worth cracking right now.

About Sealed vs Market

This page answers a simple question: does holding sealed MTG product beat investing in the stock market? Every tracked booster box is ranked by its 1-year price return and compared against the S&P 500 index over the same period. The "alpha" value on each box tells you how much it outperformed or underperformed the market benchmark.

The Market Beat Rate summary shows what percentage of all tracked boxes beat the S&P 500. Use the top gainers and losers sections to quickly identify which product types perform best as financial assets. For deeper analysis, run a custom-period comparison in the backtest tool, or check EV rankings to find boxes worth cracking rather than holding.

All returns use TCGPlayer market prices reflecting actual sales data. The S&P 500 benchmark uses total return including dividends. Data updates daily. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do MTG boxes compare to the stock market?

This page ranks every tracked sealed MTG product by 1-year price return and compares each box's performance against the S&P 500 over the same period. The 'alpha' value shows how much a box outperformed or underperformed the stock market benchmark.

Can sealed MTG product beat the S&P 500?

Some sealed boxes consistently outperform the stock market — typically older out-of-print products with limited supply. The Market Beat Rate at the top of the page shows what percentage of tracked boxes beat the S&P 500 this year.

How is the sealed vs market comparison calculated?

SpellBook Finance tracks TCGPlayer market prices for sealed boxes daily and compares 1-year price changes against the S&P 500 total return over the same period. Both box returns and the benchmark use the same start and end dates for a fair comparison.