Crack or Hold?
Run a Monte Carlo simulation that models thousands of pack openings to see the full probability distribution of value you can expect from any sealed MTG product. The simulator uses real pull rates and current TCGPlayer prices to calculate hit probabilities, EV confidence intervals, and crack-vs-hold outcomes. Compare boxes on the EV rankings page.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the MTG box simulator work?
The simulator runs a Monte Carlo analysis on a sealed box using real card pull rates and current TCGPlayer prices. It calculates your expected value, hit probability for chase cards, and compares cracking versus holding the box sealed over time.
What does 'Crack or Hold' mean for sealed MTG product?
Crack or Hold compares two outcomes: opening the box to sell the singles versus keeping it sealed as an investment. The simulator shows which option has historically produced better returns, factoring in current EV and sealed price appreciation trends.
Why should I simulate before buying a booster box?
Simulating before you buy shows the realistic range of outcomes, not just the average. You can see how often you would hit a chase mythic, how often you would lose money, and whether the box's expected value justifies its current market price.